Four different account have pump $ 30 million into the wager site Polymarket , swaying the web site ’s prognostication in favour of aTrump victory . The two candidates have been cervix and cervix since Harris entered the race in August , but Trump pulled ahead with a commanding lead story in October . News that someone or soul have dumped decade of millions of dollars into the market place and swayed the betting odds is further proof that Polymarket , and other predictive betting site , are well-situated to fudge andnot a reflectionof reality .
As of this writing , Polymarket has Trump ’s odds of victory at 60 % and Harris ’ at 40 % . Who does Polymarket think will acquire the popular vote ? Its odds have Harris at 66 % and Trump at just 34 % . Trump ’s lead on Polymarket was weird . The land site fluctuates daily , but has often kept in business with national polling which shows the election is a toss - up .
The Wall Street Journalmay have found the answer . Over the last few weeks , four new accounts on Polymarket have dumped $ 30 million onto the situation . That amount of hard currency has swing Polymarket ’s odds in Trump ’s favor . regretful , Arkham Intelligence — a blockchain analysis group whose stated goal is to make crypto less anon. — told the Journal that the four write up are probably all the same person .
Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to campaign rally at the Cobb Energy Performing Arts Centre on 31 May 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia.© Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Who would dump $ 30 million onto Polymarket to sway the odds in Trump ’s party favor ? It ’s a mystery that may never have an answer . It could be a mortal look for an tremendous payday if Trump wins or , possibly , someone essay to produce pro - Trump buzz on societal medium .
On October 6 , as the cash started to hit Polymarket and Trump started to pluck onward of Harris , Elon Musk tweeted about it . “ Trump now leading Kamala by 3 % in betting markets . More exact than poll parrot , as actual money is on the line , ” hesaid in a post on X.
The crypto - backed betting site Polymarket repeatedly bills itself as the future of word . But the site is not an indicator of reality . It ’s a manifestation of what degenerate gambler are willing to wager on a coin flip .
The simple trueness is that nothing can resolutely forebode a U.S. election . We worry over polls , watch the bet food market , and dissect every sensitive appearance in hopes of divine some validation that the future is sealed . But the time to come is never certain . poll are a recent invention that , despite claims to the contrary , areno more accurate nowthan they were 100 years ago . Betting markets are just a unexampled kind of forecasting that some will cling to for comfort . But stare too deeply and you ’ll get lose in the hype . You may even lose money .
Better to justaccept the whodunit .
2024 Presidential ElectionGamblingPolymarket
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